National University of Singapore
Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy
PP5138. Econometrics for Public Policy Analysis
Semester 2 AY2014/2015
Lectures: Tuesdays 2:00 – 4:00pm, SR3-1
Lab sessions: Tuesdays 4:00 – 5:00pm, Computer Lab
Instructor 1: KIM Hye-Won (Erin), Assistant Professor
Office: LKS #02-04
Office hour: By appointment (office)
Instructor 2: VU Minh Khuong, Associate Professor
Office: OTH, Wing A, 3rd
Office hour: By appointment (office)
The purpose of this course is to prepare students for becoming both critical consumers and competent producers of quantitative evidence used for policy analysis and policymaking. By the end of this course, students should be able to:
analyze data using econometric techniques.
evaluate quantitative analyses and arguments for policy analysis.
make policy recommendations based on quantitative evidence.
The major topics covered are: probability, inference and hypothesis testing, simple regression analysis, multiple regression analysis, non-linear regression models, panel data analysis, binary dependent variable models, program evaluation, and time series analysis and forecasting.
Stock, James H. and Mark W. Watson. 2011. Introduction to Econometrics
, 3rd edition, International edition, Pearson Education Limited.
This book is required and available for purchase at the NUS Co-op. One copy will be also kept on RBR at C. J. Koh Law Library. This book has its own website at http://wps.pearsoned.co.uk/ema_ge_stock_ie_3/193/49605/12699039.cw/index.html). It
contains useful resources for students, including datasets and replication files used in examples and exercises presented in the book. You are encouraged to visit the website and make use of it.
PP5404 (Policy Analysis) or equivalent understanding of cross-sectional Ordinary Least Squares regression analysis
Experience of using a statistical package (e.g. Stata, SAS, SPSS)
Problem set 1: 20% (Week 4)
Problem set 2: 20% (Week 10)
Problem sets are individual assignments.Students should submit hard-copies of assignments at beginning of the class on the due date.Late submissions will not be accepted for credit.
Mid-Term Exam (3 March in class): 20%
Presentation: 10% (Week 13)
Paper: 20% (30 April, midnight)
A team of one or two students is required to write a research paper to analyze a policy issue of interests using regression analysis, and to present the paper in class.A detailed guideline for the project will be distributed in advance.
You are encouraged to participate in class discussions to foster in-depth and vibrant discussions.I encourage you to raise questions to clarify any confusion that you have.
Lab Sessions and Software
Lab sessions will focus on empirical applications and review of materials covered in lectures. Participation in lab sessions is mandatory. This course will use the Stata statistical package. Stata version 12 is available in the computer lab in LKYSPP.
In case you want your own copy of Stata, plans for students at discounted prices are at http://www.stata.com/order/new/edu/gradplans
(Do not buy “Small Stata,” which cannot handle the datasets used in this class.). You can find the contact information of official Stata distributors in Singapore at http://www.stata.com/worldwide/?country=Singapore
In addition to the lab sessions and handouts available on IVLE, the following webpages at the University of California Los Angeles provide helpful resources to learn Stata:
Students in this class should adhere to NUS Honour Code, which can be found athttp://www.nus.edu.sg/registrar/adminpolicy/acceptance.html#NUSHonourCode
. In addition, the LKY School’s Code of Conduct (http://www.spp.nus.edu.sg/Code_of_Conduct.aspx
) lists academic integrity as one of its six important values. Violations of these codes in any form, including cheating in exams and plagiarism, will not be tolerated and will immediately lead to the student getting zero marks and follow-up action.
Plagiarism includes copying all or any part of your classmate’s assignments. To avoid giving the impression that you are passing off other people’s work as your own, you will need to acknowledge conscientiously the sources of information, ideas, and arguments used in your paper. For this purpose, you will use the ‘footnote style’ according to the Chicago Manual of Style, the guidelines for which can be found online at http://www.dianahacker.com/resdoc/p04_c10_s2.html
in the companion website for Diana Hacker’s A Writer’s Reference
. Please also refer to the handout that was given to you at the Workshop on Plagiarism conducted during the Orientation period.
Use of laptops is discouraged during lectures unless its purpose is related to this course. Instructor reserves the right to ban laptops if their use distracts students. Using cellular phones is prohibited during lectures and lab sessions.