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Synopsis

TopNot quite a synopsis, but a prototype...

"According to a witness of a crime, the perpetrator had blue eyes. John is blue-eyed.

(1) In the city where the crime happened, population one million, 20,000 are blue-eyed.
(2) In the same city, 2% are blue-eyed.
(3) A random individual from the city has a 2% chance of being blue-eyed.
(4) There is a 2% chance that John is blue-eyed, if he is innocent."

Questions: Are the statements equivalent? Why?

Syllabus

TopLesson 1 (09/01/2012): Introduction

Lesson 2 (11/01/2012): Kaye Chapter 2 Trial by Mathematics. Some ideas: admissible evidence, probative value. Is there an objective threshold for how high a probative value is "high"? Distributed notes on proportions.

Lesson 3 (16/01/2012): Proportion concepts: joint proportion, conditional proportion, independent categories. Multiplication rule, in general and in special case of independence.

Lesson 4 (18/01/2012): People vs Collins. Three categories.

Lesson 5 (25/01/2012): Concluded People vs Collins. Started genetics problems.

Lesson 6 (30/01/2012): Exercise 1.3: joint distribution of paternal and maternal genes, and special cases.

Lesson 7 (01/02/2012): Exercise 1.4: Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium (HWE), random mating. Started categorical distributions.

Lesson 8 (06/02/2012): Revised HWE. Concluded categorical distributions: joint, marginal, conditional distributions, independence. Studied Proof 1.

Lesson 9 (08/02/2012): Exercises 3.4, 3.1.

Lesson 10 (13/02/2012): Exercise 3.2, 3.8.

Lesson 11 (15/02/2012): The frequency theory of probabiliy.

Lesson 12 (20/02/2012): Population genetics

Lesson 13 (22/02/2012): Population genetics

Lesson 14 (27/02/2012): Revision

Lesson 15 (29/02/2012): Test

Lesson 16 (05/03/2012): Linkage equilibrium.

Lesson 17 (07/03/2012): Uncertainty

Lesson 18 (12/03/2012): Kaye Chapter 5, on product rule. Rudin and Inman Chapter 1.

Lesson 19 (14/03/2012): Kaye, Rudin and Inman (continued).

Lesson 20 (19/03/2012): Discussion on "A Conversation about Collins" by Fairley and Mosteller.

Lesson 21 (21/03/2012): Discussion on "A Conversation about Collins" (continued). Binomial probability.

Lesson 22 (26/03/2012): Discussion on Lindsey, Hertwig and Gigerenzer.

Lesson 23 (28/03/2012): Presentations from groups 1 and 2.

Lesson 24 (02/04/2012): Presentations from groups 3 and 4.

Lesson 25 (04/04/2012): Presentations from groups 5 and 6.

Lesson 26 (09/04/2012): General discussion of issues from presentations.

Lesson 27 (11/04/2012): Module review.

Assessment

TopTentatively:

(1) 10%: initial paper
(2) 30%: tutorial exercises (continuous assessment)
(3) 20%: test (mid semester)
(4) 20%: project presentation (based on group of 4) (end of semester)
(5) 20%: project paper (after presentation)

Preclusions

TopNot applicable to USP modules.

Workload

Top0-0-4-0-3-3

Workload Components : A-B-C-D-E
A: no. of lecture hours per week
B: no. of tutorial hours per week
C: no. of lab hours per week
D: no. of hours for projects, assignments, fieldwork etc per week
E: no. of hours for preparatory work by a student per week