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UQF2101C
QUANTITATIVE REASONING FOUNDATION: DNA EVIDENCE IN A COURT OF LAW
2011/2012, Semester 2
University Scholars Programme (University Scholars Programme)
Modular Credits: 4
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Synopsis
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Not quite a synopsis, but a prototype...
"According to a witness of a crime, the perpetrator had blue eyes. John is blue-eyed.
(1) In the city where the crime happened, population one million, 20,000 are blue-eyed.
(2) In the same city, 2% are blue-eyed.
(3) A random individual from the city has a 2% chance of being blue-eyed.
(4) There is a 2% chance that John is blue-eyed, if he is innocent."
Questions: Are the statements equivalent? Why?
Syllabus
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Lesson 1 (09/01/2012): Introduction
Lesson 2 (11/01/2012): Kaye Chapter 2 Trial by Mathematics. Some ideas: admissible evidence, probative value. Is there an objective threshold for how high a probative value is "high"? Distributed notes on proportions.
Lesson 3 (16/01/2012): Proportion concepts: joint proportion, conditional proportion, independent categories. Multiplication rule, in general and in special case of independence.
Lesson 4 (18/01/2012): People vs Collins. Three categories.
Lesson 5 (25/01/2012): Concluded People vs Collins. Started genetics problems.
Lesson 6 (30/01/2012): Exercise 1.3: joint distribution of paternal and maternal genes, and special cases.
Lesson 7 (01/02/2012): Exercise 1.4: Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium (HWE), random mating. Started categorical distributions.
Lesson 8 (06/02/2012): Revised HWE. Concluded categorical distributions: joint, marginal, conditional distributions, independence. Studied Proof 1.
Lesson 9 (08/02/2012): Exercises 3.4, 3.1.
Lesson 10 (13/02/2012): Exercise 3.2, 3.8.
Lesson 11 (15/02/2012): The frequency theory of probabiliy.
Lesson 12 (20/02/2012): Population genetics
Lesson 13 (22/02/2012): Population genetics
Lesson 14 (27/02/2012): Revision
Lesson 15 (29/02/2012): Test
Lesson 16 (05/03/2012): Linkage equilibrium.
Lesson 17 (07/03/2012): Uncertainty
Lesson 18 (12/03/2012): Kaye Chapter 5, on product rule. Rudin and Inman Chapter 1.
Lesson 19 (14/03/2012): Kaye, Rudin and Inman (continued).
Lesson 20 (19/03/2012): Discussion on "A Conversation about Collins" by Fairley and Mosteller.
Lesson 21 (21/03/2012): Discussion on "A Conversation about Collins" (continued). Binomial probability.
Lesson 22 (26/03/2012): Discussion on Lindsey, Hertwig and Gigerenzer.
Lesson 23 (28/03/2012): Presentations from groups 1 and 2.
Lesson 24 (02/04/2012): Presentations from groups 3 and 4.
Lesson 25 (04/04/2012): Presentations from groups 5 and 6.
Lesson 26 (09/04/2012): General discussion of issues from presentations.
Lesson 27 (11/04/2012): Module review.
Assessment
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Tentatively:
(1) 10%: initial paper
(2) 30%: tutorial exercises (continuous assessment)
(3) 20%: test (mid semester)
(4) 20%: project presentation (based on group of 4) (end of semester)
(5) 20%: project paper (after presentation)
Preclusions
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Not applicable to USP modules.
Workload
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0-0-4-0-3-3
Workload Components : A-B-C-D-E
A: no. of lecture hours per week
B: no. of tutorial hours per week
C: no. of lab hours per week
D: no. of hours for projects, assignments, fieldwork etc per week
E: no. of hours for preparatory work by a student per week