PP5241F: India’s Development since Independence in 1947:
A comparative Perspective with China since its Communist takeover in 1949
Semester 1, AY 2011-12
Venue: SR 2-2
Wednesdays: 2-5 pm
Instructor: T. N. Srinivasan
E-mail: spptns@nus.edu.sg
Office: LKS, 2nd Floor
Phone: +65 6601 1180
Office Hours: By Appointment
(Please e-mail Diana at sppnlld@nus.edu.sgfor an appointment)
Teaching Assistant: Ruchika Singh
E-mail: ruchika.singh@nus.edu.sg
Office: TBA
Office Hours: TBA
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Content of the Course
This course is primarily on the development of India since independence in 1947 from British Colonial rule, and partition of colonial India into India and Pakistan. Secondarily, it compares and contrasts India’s policies and development performance with those of China, its neighbor and natural comparator. A political economy perspective would be used to analyze the interaction of economic, politics as well as socio-cultural norms and traditions in the development of both countries.
A periodization of the development experience since 1950, roughly corresponding to changes in polity, global economy and society, and the differences across periods would be central to the analysis. In particular, the aggregated growth (real GDP) in both countries accelerated after 1980, as compared to the three decades of 1950-1980. Forces of globalization gathered further steam, and both countries introduced economic reforms: China in 1978, and India hesitantly in the 1980s and systematically after 1991. The analytical underpinnings, the rationale, contents, and extent of reforms in the two differed in many respects. One common component was their greater integration with the global economy, and the role of market forces and competition in the domestic economy. A discussion of the reforms would be essential part of the course.
The global financial crisis of 2008 hit both countries. Fortunately, the impact of the crisis on was modest relative that on the U.S., Western Europe and some developing countries. Moreover, both countries recovered from the crisis much more rapidly than others. A discussion of the factors that contributed to the fortunate outcome in both, and also the differences between the two would be part of the course.
The development experience will be analyzed both from an aggregate perspective as well as from that of major sectors of the economy and also of market and non-market dimensions of the utilization of capital, land and labor resources. The differences of the extent to which integration with the global economy varied across sector and between countries will be explored. The course will conclude with a discussion of the future prospects of the two countries, in particular the opportunities and constraints on their ability to sustain and perhaps accelerate their relatively rapid growth since the 1980s.
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Assessment of performance
The course meets for 13 weeks with a one week break at week 6. Students are expected to read the “required readings” marked with an asterisk in the syllabus, and be prepared to discuss them in class. The class will consist of a lecture for the first 90 minutes, and discussion of the readings after a short break. Students are expected to actively participate in the ensuing discussion. Class participation measured by class attendance and contribution to learning constitutes 20 percent of the grade.
Students are also required to submit four short essays critically discussing any reading(s) from the syllabus that were presented in class in the preceding two weeks. These will be due on September 6, September 27, October 11, and October 25, and will constitute 40 percent of the grade.
A final term paper not exceeding 30 pages, 1.5 spacing is to be submitted on December 2, 2011. You are encouraged to discuss the topic with the class instructor before you start working on the term paper. Based on overall class enrollment, you may be required to present your term paper in class. The term paper will constitute the remaining 40 percent of the grade. There will be no final exam.
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Weekly Topics (readings to be assigned)
Weeks 1 and 2: Introduction, Pre-independence history, colonial heritage, planning and development with state playing a dominant role in the economy
(Readings marked by * asterisk are required)
Week 1 (Wednesday August 17, 2011)
Fogel, Robert W.2007. ‘Capitalism and Democracy in 2040: Forecasts and Speculations’, Working Paper No. 13184. Cambridge MA: National Bureau of Economic Research
*Maddison, Angus (2008b), Chinese Economic Performance in the Long-Run, Paris, OECD Development Centre.
Naoroji, Dadabhai.1899. Poverty and Un-British Rule in India. London: Swan Sonnenschein
*Srinivasan, T.N. (2007) "China, India and the World Economy," Economic and Political Weekly, August 26,2006, 3716-3727.
*Srinivasan, T.N. 2011. Growth, Sustainability, and India’s Economic Reforms, New Delhi: Oxford University Press. Pages (3-12) (Tables 4.2 and 4.3)
Week 2 (Wednesday August 24, 2011)
IIAPR.1988. Report of the National Planning Committee, 1938. New Delhi: Indian Institute of Applied Political Research.
Bhagwati, Jagdish and Padma Desai.1970. India: Planning for Industrialization. London: Oxford University Press
*Ganguly, Sumit and Rahul Mukherji. (2010). India since 1980. London: Cambridge University Press (Chapter 1)
*Nehru, Jawaharlal.1946. The Discovery of India. New York: The John Day Company, 400-425. Reproduced as Jawaharlal Nehru.1994. The Discovery of India. New Delhi: Oxford University Press for Jawaharlal Nehru Memorial Fund.
Sivasubramonian, S. 2000. The National Income of India and in the Twentieth Century. New Delhi: Oxford University Press
*Srinivasan, T.N. and Jessica Wallack. 2011. “Inelastic Institutions: Political change and intergovernmental transfer oversight in post-independence India,” in Suman Berry, Barry Bosworth, and Arvind Panagariya (eds), India Policy Forum, Sage Publications (13-15, 18-22, Appendix)
*Visveswaraya, Sir M.1934.Planned Economy for India. Bangalore: Bangalore Press. 350-355
Weeks 3 and 4:Man features of the Pre-reform Development Strategy – Emphasis on industry – Discretionary controls over the private sector – Similarities and differences with China
Week 5 and 6: Agriculture – Land ownership and Tenancy reforms; Landless agricultural labour; Irrigation and Green Revolution; Public Distribution Systems; Market interventions by the governments at the Centre and the States; Food, Fertilizers, and other subsidies; Market for Land as an asset; Profound differences with China’s agricultural policies prior to and after Deng Tsiao Ping’s Reforms; Poverty and agriculture.
Mid-Semester Break
Weeks 7 and 8:Industry, Macroeconomics, Foreign Trade and Investment, Financial System; Domestic capital markets, pre-reform development outcomes; Fiscal conservatism of 1950-80 to Fiscal profligacy in the 1980s; Macroeconomic crisis of 1991 in India and its difference with that of 1966.
Weeks 9 and 10:Rationales for Reform – Contents and Sequencing of Reforms; Fiscal consolidation, Foreign Trade and Investment, Financial Sector; Changes in Political Context and Structure of government at the Centre
Weeks 11 and 12:Mixed outcomes of Reforms, Interstate (India) and Inter-province (China) disparities in outcomes – fiscal consolidation yet to be achieved – financial crisis and its aftermath.
Future prospects– completing the reform agenda – China and India in global geopolitics and security in the coming decades; China-India cooperation if not partnership: an oxymoron?
Week 13:Presentation and Class Discussion
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Reading list
Banerji, A and E. Duflo. 2011. Poor Economics. New Delhi: Random House
Bardhan, P. 2010. Awakening Giants, Feet of Clay: Assessing the Economic Rise of China and India. New Jersey: Princeton University Press [http://libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/login?url=http://www.netLibrary.com/urlapi.asp?action=summary&v=1&bookid=313458]
Bhagwati, Jagdish and Padma Desai.1970. India: Planning for Industrialization. London: Oxford University Press
Bhagwati, Jagdish and T.N. Srinivasan.1975. Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Development: India. New York: Columbia UP, 1975.
-. 1993. India’s Economic Reforms. New Delhi: Ministry of Finance, Government of India
Chand, V. 2010. Public Service in India. New Delhi, Oxford University Press
Chow, G. 2007. China’s Economic Transformation. 2nd Edition. Wiley Blackwell
Emmott, Bill (2008). Rivals: How the Power Struggle between China, India and Japan will Shape our Next Decade. New York: Harcourt, Inc.
Feldstein, Martin (2009) “Why the renminbi has to rise to address imbalances,” FinancialTimesOct 29th http://www.nber.org/feldstein/ft102909.pdf
Fogel, Robert W.2007. ‘Capitalism and Democracy in 2040: Forecasts and Speculations’, Working Paper No. 13184. Cambridge MA: National Bureau of Economic Research
Forbes, N. 2012. “India’s Higher Education Opportunity” in Hope et al (eds) Economic Reform in India: Challenges, Prospects and Lessons, Cambridge University Press [ Available on IVLE]
Frankel, FR and H Harding. 2004. The India China Relationship: what the United States needs to know New York: Columbia University Press; Washington: Woodrow Wilson Center Press [On RBR]
Ganguly, Sumit and Rahul Mukherji. (2010). India since 1980. London: Cambridge University Press
Goldstein, Morris and Nicholas Lardy (2009) “Challenges Facing the Chinese Authorities Under the Existing Currency Regime,” Ch3 in Future of China’s Exchange Rate Policies, Petersen Institute of International Economics.
IIAPR.1988. Report of the National Planning Committee, 1938. New Delhi: Indian Institute of Applied Political Research.
Jacob, V, A Kochar and S Reddy.2012. “Improving the quality of rural primary schools: An evaluation of a Computer Aided Learning program in South India” in Hope et al (eds) Economic Reform in India: Challenges, Prospects and Lessons, Cambridge University Press [ Available on IVLE]
Justin Yifu Lin, Fang Cai and Zhou Li. 2003. China: China’s Miracle, Revised Edition, The Chinese University Press
Lardy, N. 1998. China’s Unfinished Economic Revolution. Washington: Brookings Institution Press
Maddison, Angus (2008a), “Shares of the Rich and the Rest in the World Economy,” Asian Economic Policy Review, 3(1), 67-82.
Maddison, Angus (2008b), Chinese Economic Performance in the Long-Run, Paris, OECD Development Centre.
Malenbaum, W. (1956), ‘India and China: Development Contrasts’, Journal of Political Economy, vol.64, No. 1, pp.1-24
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(1959), ‘India and China: Contrasts in Development’, American Economic Review, vol.49, No. 3, pp.284-309
Mohan. 2012 “Financial Sector Reforms and Monetary Policy: The Indian Experience”, in Hope et al (eds) Economic Reform in India: Challenges, Prospects and Lessons, Cambridge University Press [ Available on IVLE]
Naoroji, Dadabhai.1899. Poverty and Un-British Rule in India. London: Swan Sonnenschein
Naughton, BJ. 2006. The Chinese Economy: Transitions and Growth. Boston: MIT Press
Nehru, Jawaharlal.1946. The Discovery of India. New York: The John Day Company. Reproduced as Jawaharlal Nehru.1994. The Discovery of India. New Delhi: Oxford University Press for Jawaharlal Nehru Memorial Fund.
Panagariya, A. 2012. “India and China: Trade and Foreign Investment” in Hope et al (eds) Economic Reform in India: Challenges, Prospects and Lessons, Cambridge University Press [ Available on IVLE]
Panagariya, A. 2010. India: The Emerging Giant. Oxford University Press
“Poverty lines in India: Reflections after the Patna Conference,” in Economic and Political Weekly, 42(40), Oct 13, 2007, 4155-4165
Rawski, T.G. (1989), Economic Growth in Prewar China, University of California Press, Berkeley.
Shangquan, Gao (1999), Two Decades of Reform in China, World Scientific Publishing Co., Singapore
Sharma, SD. 2009. China and India in the Age of Globalization. Cambridge University Press
Singh, N and T.N. Srinivasan. 2012. “Federalism and Economic Development in India: An Assessment, forthcoming” in Hope et al (eds) Economic Reform in India: Challenges, Prospects and Lessons, Cambridge University Press [ Available on IVLE]
Sivasubramonian, S. 2000. The National Income of India and in the Twentieth Century. New Delhi: Oxford University Press
Srinivasan, T.N. (2007) "China, India and the World Economy," Economic and Political Weekly, August 26,2006, 3716-3727.
Srinivasan, T.N. (with contributions from Justin Y. Lin and Yun-Wing Sung). 1994. Agriculture and Trade in China and India: Policies and Performance Since 1950. San Francisco: ICS Press, 1994.
Srinivasan, T.N. and Jessica Wallack. 2011. “Inelastic Institutions: Political change and intergovernmental transfer oversight in post-independence India,” in Suman Berry, Barry Bosworth, and Arvind Panagariya (eds), India Policy Forum, Sage Publications
Srinivasan, T.N,N. S. S. Narayana and K. Parikh. 1991. Agriculture, Growth and Redistribution of Income: Policy Analysis with a General Equilibrium Model of India, Amsterdam: North Holland and Bombay: Allied Publishers, 1991.
Srinivasan, T.N. 1986. "Development Strategy: Is the Success of Outward Orientation at an End?" in Essays on Economic Progress and Welfare, S. Guhan and M. R. Shroff, eds. Delhi: Oxford UP, 1986: 223-58.
Srinivasan, T.N. 2004. “Economic Reforms and Global Integration” in Frankee, FR and H Harding. 2004. The India China Relationship: what the United States needs to know New York: Columbia University Press [ Available on IVLE]
Srinivasan, T.N. 2006. "China, India and the World Economy," Economic and Political Weekly, August 26,2006, 3716-3727.
Srinivasan, T.N. 2010. "Employment and India's Development and Reforms," Journal of Comparative Economics, March 2010, 38(1), 82-106.
Srinivasan, T.N. 2011. Growth, Sustainability, and India’s Economic Reforms, New Delhi: Oxford University Press
Visveswaraya, Sir M.1934.Planned Economy for India. Bangalore: Bangalore Press.
Winters, L. Alan and Shahid Yusuf, (Eds), (2007). Dancing with Giants: China, India and theGlobal Economy. Washington, D.C. and Singapore: The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and the Institute of Policy Studies.