PART I: Applied Regression Techniques
Week 1 (Jan 11): Introduction and Simple Linear Regression
Required readings: JW – Chapters 1 and 2
Week 2 (Jan 18): Multiple Regression Analysis: Estimation
Required readings: JW – Chapter 3
Knight, Brian. 2013. "State Gun Policy and Cross-State Externalities: Evidence from Crime Gun Tracing." American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 5(4): 200-229.
Homework: Chapter 2: C2 & C4
Week 3 (Jan 25): Multiple Regression Analysis: Inference & Further Issues
Required readings: JW – Chapter 4 and 6
Supplementary readings: JW – Chapters 5 and 8
Lab Session: 10:30am to 12:00pm.
Homework: Chapter 3: C2 & C8
Week 4 (Feb 1): Advanced Panel Data Methods
Required readings: JW – Chapters 13 and 14
Malesky, E., Nguyen, C., and Tran, A. (2014) The Impact of Recentralization on Public Services: A Difference-in-Differences Analysis of the Abolition of Elected Councils in Vietnam. American Political Science Review, 108(1): 144-168.
De Silva, Dakshina G., Robert P. McComb, Young-Kyu Moh, Anita R. Schiller and Andres J. Vargas. (2010). The Effect of Migration on Wages: Evidence from a Natural Experiment. American Economic Review, 100(2): 321-26.
Homework: Chapter 4: Problem 2 & 4; Chapter 6: Problem 4
Week 5 (Feb 8): Advanced Panel Data Methods & Instrumental Variables Estimation and Two Stage Least Squares
Required readings: JW – Chapter 14 & Chapter 15
Murray, M. (2006) Avoiding Invalid Instruments and Coping with Weak Instruments. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 20(4): 111-132.
Homework: Chapter 13: C2 & C8
Week 6 (Feb 15): Instrumental Variables Estimation and Two Stage Least Squares & Limited Dependent Variable Models and Sample Selection Corrections
Required readings: JW – Chapter 15 & 17
Dobbie, W. and Fryer, R G. (2011) Are High-Quality Schools Enough to Increase Achievement among the Poor? Evidence from the Harlem Children's Zone. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 3(3): 158-187.
Pampel, Fred C. (2000) Logistic Regression. Thousand Oaks, CA: SAGE Publications. [eBook available at NUS Libraries]
Homework: Chapter 14: C10 & C12
RECESS WEEK (Sat, 18 Feb 2017 ~ Sun, 26 Feb 2017)
PART II: Applied Time-Series Analysis
Week 7 (Mar 1): Review of Part I: Practice problems
Week 8 (Mar 8): Time Series Analysis: An Introduction
JW – Chapter 10
Krupp, C and Pollard P. (1996) Market Responses to Antidumping Laws: Some Evidence from the U.S. Chemical Industry. The Canadian Journal of Economics, 29(1): 199-227.
Fair, Ray C. (1996) Econometrics and Presidential Elections." Journal of Economic Perspectives, 10(3): 89- 102.
Week 9 (Mar 15): Basic Regression Analysis with Time Series Data
JW – Chapters 11, 18 (18.1-18.3)
Whittington, Leslie A., James Alm, and H. Elizabeth Peters. (1990) Fertility and the Personal Exemption: Implicit Pronatalist Policy in the United States. American Economic Review, 80(3): 545-556.
Crump, Richard, Gopi Shah Goda, and Kevin J. Mumford. (2011) Fertility and the Personal Exemption: Comment. American Economic Review, 101(4): 1616-1628.
Granger, C., B. Huang and C. Yang. (2000) Bivariate Causality Between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates in Asian Countries. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 40(3): 337-354.
Ashley, R. Granger, C.W.J. and R. Schmalensee. (1980) Advertising and Aggregate Consumption: An Analysis of Causality. Econometrica, 48, 1149-1168.
Week 10 (Mar 22): Co-integration methods and Vector Error Correction (VEC) Models
JW – Chapter 18 (18.4-18.5)
Zou Gaolu and Chau K.W. (2006) “Short- and long-run effects between oil consumption and
economic growth in China”. Energy Policy 34 (2006), 3644–3655.
Asteriou D. and Agiomirgianakis G.M. (2001) “Human capital and economic growth: Time series evidence from Greece”. Journal of Policy Modeling 23(2001) 481–489.
Kolodzeij, M & Kaufmann R. (2014) Oil Demand Shocks Reconsidered: A Cointegrated Vector Autoregression. Energy Economics, 41(1): 33-40.
Week 11 (Apr 29): Forecasting
Lim. C. and McAleer M. (2002) Time series forecasts of international travel demand for Australia. Tourism Management, 23(4): 389-396.
Ediger VS. and Akar S. (2007) ARIMA forecasting of primary energy demand by fuel in Turkey. Energy Policy, 35(3): 1701-1708.
Kwan, A. and Cotsomitis J. (2006) The Usefulness of Consumer Confidence in Forecasting Household Spending in Canada: A National and Regional Analysis. Economic Inquiry, 44(1): 185-97.
Week 12 (Apr 5): Conducting empirical policy analysis
JW – Chapter 19
In this final session, we will address FAQs by public policy students such as:
How to write a high quality empirical policy paper?
What is mixed methods analysis?
Is it necessary to do fancy econometric modelling to write a good policy paper?
Wang, W. (2015) Exploring the Determinants of Network Effectiveness: The Case of Neighborhood Governance Networks in Beijing. Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory, doi:10.1093/jopart/muv017.
Piketty, Thomas and Saez, Emmanuel. (2014) Inequality in the Long Run. Science, 344(6186): 838-843. [plus supplementary material]
Week 13 (Apr 12): Presentation of Research Paper